A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
